Hong Kong's Brexit ambitions: Could city ever be independent from China? 香港的脫歐野心：這個城市有可能從中國獨立出來嗎？

Hong Kong has its own legal system, government, currency, flag and Olympic sports team.

香港有自己的法律體制、政府、貨幣、國旗和奧運運動隊伍。

So could the city -- officially a Special Administrative Region of China -- ever become fully independent? That's what an increasing number of people, frustrated by a stalled political reform process and perceived Chinese encroachment, are asking.

所以這個中國的特別行政區有可能變成完全獨立嗎？這是現在越來越多因停擺的政治改革與感受到中國的干涉而漸漸變得心灰意冷人們想問的。

The city's leaders, and Beijing, have dismissed the calls out of hand -- with some commentators even suggesting discussion of independence could be a criminal offense. But in the wake of the UK's shock vote to leave the European Union and the increasing likelihood that Scotland and Catalonia will break away in the near future, is it so crazy to suggest that Hong Kong could go it alone?

這個城市的領導者和北京，立即駁回了這樣的要求，有些人甚至建議要將獨立相關的討論視為是犯罪舉動，隨著英國退出歐盟令人震驚的投票結果還有蘇格蘭和加泰隆尼亞在近期獨立的可能性增加，說香港也有獨立的可能性會太瘋狂嗎？

Hong Kong and China香港與中國

According to a United Nations declaration, "all peoples have the right to self-determination."

根據聯合國聲明：「所有人都有自主決定的權利。」

From 1960 to 1972, Hong Kong was listed alongside other colonies and territories such as Fiji and Kenya as a "non-self-governing territory" in which all steps should be taken "in order to enable them to enjoy complete independence and freedom."

從1960年到1972年，香港和其他殖民地和領土像是斐濟或是肯亞等一同被列為「非自治領土」，這意味著為了要人們能夠享受完全的獨立與自由應當要採取所有可能的行動。

Today, Fiji and Kenya are independent republics, Hong Kong is not. In 1971, the People's Republic of China joined the U.N., and the following year Hong Kong (along with neighboring Macau, then a Portuguese colony) was removed from the list on Beijing's request. In 1984, the Sino-British Joint Declaration on the handover of sovereignty over Hong Kong from the UK to China was signed, and in 1997 Hong Kong officially became a Chinese SAR.

現今，斐濟和肯亞是獨立共和國了，香港不是，在1971年，中華人民共和國加入聯合國，在隔年，在北京的要求之下香港（連同著當時是葡萄牙領土的澳門）被剃出聯合國名單之內，在1984年，簽訂了針對香港主權從英國轉移到中國手上的中英聯合聲明（Sino-British Joint Declaration），然後1997年香港正式成為中國特別行政區。

The Joint Declaration and the city's mini-constitution, The Basic Law, guarantee Hong Kong a "high degree of autonomy" and "gradual and orderly progress" towards universal suffrage.

聯合聲明以及該城市的簡易憲法-《基本法》確保香港「擁有高度的自治權」並以「循序漸進」原則達至普選權。

Perceptions that progress on the latter point has stalled in the wake of a failed attempt by the government to pass limited political reform — in which people would vote freely for the chief executive, but only from a slate of candidates chosen in effect by Beijing — has led to a surge in support for so-called "localist" groups, that advocate for greater Hong Kong autonomy and even independence.

隨著政府企圖要通過有限制的政治改革(人民能夠自由選出行政首長，但是北京能夠影響候選人人選的提名)失敗，追尋後者訴求的過程就已經停止了，而這也導致了支持所謂的地方主義組織的人數大量增加，而地方主義組織擁護的就是大香港區的自治權和獨立。

At least seven new localist parties have been set up in the last year. In a recent by-election, Hong Kong Indigenous candidate Edward Leung won more than 15% of the vote, saying the result marked the arrival of localism as a "third power" in Hong Kong politics.

去年至少有七個本土的黨派被建立，近期的補選，香港土生土長的候選人梁天琦贏得超過百分之15的選票，這個結果讓地方主義的到來被視為香港政治的「第三勢力」。

How could Hong Kong go independent? 香港要怎麼變獨立？

China is extremely protective of its territory, and even some that it doesn't officially control, and Beijing has reacted angrily to calls for Hong Kong independence, with one state-run newspaper saying it is a "fake proposition without any possibility of realization."

中國對於其領土有極度強烈的保護意識，即使是些中國沒有正式接管的地方，北京人然對於香港獨立憤怒地做出回應，有一個省報中提到這個訴求是「不可會有任何理解可能性的假主張」。

Labour Party lawmaker Cyd Ho says whether it's independence or self-determination, "Hong Kong won't be able to achieve any of that if China doesn't become a civilized nation that respects human rights."

工黨立委何秀蘭表示，不管是獨立或是自主決定，「只要中國尚未成為尊重人權的文國家，香港就不可能達成兩者中的任何一個。」

With Beijing unlikely to play along, just how Hong Kong would go about achieving independence is unclear. The Hong Kong National Party calls for revoking Basic Law and the Sino-British Joint Declaration and establishing a new constitution, while another pro-independence party advocates for the UK to take back control over the city as a path towards stateship, according to the South China Morning Post.

北京不太可能有配合的意願，因此香港要如何獨立目前還尚未明瞭，香港民族黨要求廢除《基本法》和中英聯合聲明並建立新的憲法，根據南華早報，其他支持獨立的政黨則是主張英國回來接管，作為邁向獨立的方法。

Others advocate for a Brexit-style vote on the city's future. Demosisto -- a political party founded by several leaders of the Umbrella Movement, including former student activist Joshua Wong -- has called for a self-determination referendum to be held in 10 years time, in which full independence from China would be an option.

其他人主張希望能夠以脫歐公投的模式決定這個城市的未來，由幾位雨傘革命的幾位領導人組成的黨派—香港眾志（Demosisto），包含前學生社會運動者黃之鋒，都提出用十年時間推動自覺工頭的要求，而在公投中從中國完全獨立將會是一個選項。

"We hope that in the future ... we can organize a civil referendum to bolster the consensus in society that Hong Kongers should have the right to decide their own future," chairman Nathan Law tells CNN.

「我們希望在未來我們能夠組織一場能夠落實社會一致共識的公民選舉，而這個共識就是香港人應當擁有決定自己未來的權利。」主席羅冠聰告訴CNN。

China is a signatory to, though it has not ratified, a U.N. treaty that recognizes the right of all peoples to self-determination, including the right to "freely determine their political status."

雖然沒有被認可，中國對於認同所有人民都有自主決定權的聯合國條款也是簽署國之一，而這個自主決定權包含「自由決定自己政治的狀態」。

How would independence work?而獨立要怎麼運作呢？

That's where it gets tricky. Hong Kong imports as much as 80% of its water supplies from China, as well as large amounts of electricity and food. Mainland China is also Hong Kong's biggest trading partner by far.

這裡就是最麻煩的部分，香港有百分之80的水是從中國進口，大量的電力和食物也是，中國大陸目前也是香港最的貿易夥伴。

While independence wouldn't necessarily mean an end to all imports from the mainland, it's unlikely Beijing would make it easy for the city to go it alone even if it was prepared to accept its legal right to do so, itself a seemingly impossible proposition.

雖然獨立不一定表示所有來自大陸的進口都必須停止，但北京不太可能會讓香港這麼容易地自己處理這件事，即使他們準備要接受香港的法律權利這麼做，這似乎是個不可能的主張。

Advocates for Hong Kong independence usually point to Singapore as an obvious regional example of a small, self-governing city state.

香港獨立的支持者通常都把新加坡當作小型自治政府的城邦國家作為地方典範。

Singapore, while it produces huge amounts of water itself through desalination plants, is still dependent on supplies imported from Malaysia, and expects to be so for another several decades, according to the government.

新加坡儘管透過海水淡化廠自行生產大量的水，依然需要從馬來西亞進口，而且根據其政府表示，未來的幾十年都還是會維持這樣的狀態。

"We are not that similar to Singapore," warns Alan Leong, leader of the Civic Party, which advocates for full universal suffrage in Hong Kong but does not support independence.

支持普選權但不支持香港獨立的香港公民黨領導人梁家傑警告：「我們並不像是新加坡。」

"We are connected to the mainland in so many ways, not only geographically, there are blood ties between Hong Kong people and our relatives and families in the mainland, we have business and trade connections (in the mainland)."

However, he warns that "if Beijing is determined to continue with its very high-handed approach towards Hong Kong then I can bet you that the independence movement will flourish."

「我們在多個方面都與大陸有所聯繫，不知是地理上，還有香港人和在大陸的親戚與家屬的血緣聯繫，另外還有和大陸的商業貿易聯繫。」然而，他警告：「如果北京在繼續對香港採取告段，那我可以跟你打賭整個獨立運動會在更加的興盛。」

原文網址：http://goo.gl/H8pWyN