French election 2017: The economic challenge 2017法國總統大選:經濟挑戰




As French voters go to the polls to elect a new president, the country's relationship with the European Union, immigration and terrorism will all be important themes.
當法國選民參加投票選出新總統時,重要的主題將會是其國家與歐盟的關係、移民和恐怖組織。

But there is always an economic context that will feature as a major consideration for many voters.但經濟環境也總是會成為選民的主要考量。
  • context 上下文、景況、環境、背景、語境
And whoever eventually walks into the Elysee Palace will face some difficult, even intractable challenges.而不管最後是誰登入愛麗舍宮,都將面臨一些困難,甚至可說是棘手的挑戰。
  •  intractable不聽話的、倔強的、棘手的
The big picture is an economy with a high standard of living and high productivity but some persistent problems.
(法國經濟)整體來說是高生活標準及高生產力的經濟,但卻有持續性的問題。




The issue that stands out is unemployment. Close to three million people who want to work and are looking for a job don't have one. The unemployment rate is 10%.最引人注目的議題就是失業,有將近三百萬人有工作意願且正在尋找,卻還沒有工作,其失業率為10%。


It's not as bad as some eurozone neighbours, but it is above average for the region and far worse than, for example, the Netherlands and Austria, where it is below 6%, and Germany, where it is below 4%. The figure for the UK is below 5%.
這比起一些歐元區國家並沒有那麼糟,但仍高於該區平均,而且高很多,舉例而言,荷蘭和奧地利都低於6%,德國低於4%,而英國的數字則是低於5%。


You might think that unemployment will decline as the recovery from the eurozone's recession continues. Many forecasters expect it will, but not by all that much.
你可能會認為當歐元區的蕭條持續復甦時,失業數將會下降,許多預測者預期其將會下降,但全靠復甦並不能下降很多。


'Rigid structures'僵硬的結構

The International Monetary Fund estimates that it will be hard to get unemployment down much below 8.5%.國際貨幣基金估計靠著復甦要降到8.5%以下會很困難。


That judgement reflects what the IMF calls "deep rooted structural rigidities", factors that make the country's labour market less adaptable. They make it harder or less attractive for employers to take on new workers.

這樣的判斷也反映IMF所稱的「根深蒂固的結構僵化」造成國家的勞動市場的適應性較弱,這讓雇主要採用新員工更困難或更不具吸引力。
  • deep rooted根深蒂固的
Here are some examples. The "tax wedge" is relatively large - that's the difference between a worker's take home pay and what it costs the employer. There are long and uncertain procedures around dismissals, when an employer thinks they are needed.
這裏有些例子,「稅收楔子」相對大-那指的是工作者領的實質工資和對於雇主來說的成本兩者間的差;當僱主認為需要解僱時,其時間長且有不確定的程序。


Of course there's a need to protect workers from unfair and arbitrary sackings, but many labour market experts do think that in France the balance is wrong and that it acts as a disincentive to hiring new workers. It is relatively easy to get out of work benefits and the IMF says the education system has failed to keep up with the changing skills needed by employers.
當然需要保護工作者免於不公平及任意的資遣,但許多勞工市場的專家的確認同在法國,這個平衡是錯誤的,這是一個抑制雇主僱用新員工的因素,而失業的津貼相對簡單,且IMF表示教育制度也跟不上雇主所需要變換快速的技能。
  • arbitrary 反覆無常、隨心所欲的
  • sacking 解僱、麻袋布
  • disincentive 抑制因素
There have been reforms intended to make inroads into these issues, including a package known as the Macron law, named after Emmanuel Macron, one of the presidential candidates when he was economy minister. The IMF has welcomed this but says more is needed.
有許多改革致力於這些議題上,包括馬康法案(以總統候選人之一的埃瑪紐耶爾·馬克宏命名,當時他是經濟部長),IMF非常歡迎這些法案,但還需要更多。


Then there is the 35-hour working week. It doesn't ban long hours, but is a threshold which triggers overtime payments. Critics think it raises costs for employers, supporters that it protects workers and encourages employers to hire more people.
還有一週35小時的工作時數,這項法案並未禁止長工作時數,但是是一個會觸發超時薪資的門檻,批評者認為這項法案提高了雇主的成本,支持者則認為它保護了勞工,並鼓勵雇主能雇用更多人。


High productivity高生產力

There is also a feature of the French business regulation and taxation that affects the size of firms. Nicola Brandt from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) told the BBC that there's a threshold effect - regulations that kick in when a firm has 50 or more employees that inhibit those that might otherwise grow.
另外法國商業法規和稅務還有一項特色影響著公司的規模。
來自經濟合作暨發展組織的Nicola Brandt告訴BBC,有一個門檻效應- 當一家公司有50名員工或超過時,一些法規開始生效,抑制這些可能成長的公司。
  • kick in 起作用;產生影響
  • inhibit 抑制

So she says France is relatively lacking in medium-sized firms - a particular contrast with Germany whose "Mittelstand" is often seen as the backbone of the economy.所以她表示法國相對缺少中型企業-與德國通常被視為經濟基礎的「中堅企業」形成強烈對比。


France does have very high levels of productivity, a measure how much each worker produces.
法國確實有很高水準的生產力,一種衡量每一個工作者生產多少的方式。


There are some good reasons for that. France has highly skilled managers and engineers. Infrastructure - the transport and energy system for example - is good.
為此有一些好原因,法國有高階技能的經理與工程師,基礎建設-像是交通和能源系統都很棒。


But it also reflects the high cost of employing people. If businesses don't want to hire low-skilled people because it's too expensive and they invest in equipment or software instead, it makes the average productivity higher.
但這也反映出雇用人力的高成本,如果企業不想要雇用低技能的人力,因為太昂貴而且取而代之他們投資在設備或軟體上,這使平均生產力更高。


And while the level of productivity is high, the rate of increase has slowed as it has in other developed economies.
雖然生展力很高,但增加速率如同其他已開發經濟體逐漸慢下來。


Cheap borrowing, big debt便宜貸款,政府大負擔

The government's finances are also a nagging issue in France.政府的財務也是一項法國困擾的議題。
  • nagging 嘮叨的,挑剔的;使人不得安寧的

It's true the government's borrowing costs are not high. One widely used measure is the yield or return in the financial market on government bonds or debt due for repayment in 10 years.政府的借貸成本不高千真萬確,普遍用以衡量的一種方式是金融市場裡政府的十年債券或債務之收益率或利潤。

It's below 1%, significantly better than the eurozone countries that have (or recently had) more pressing debt problems, such as Spain, Italy, Portugal or Greece.
其利率低於1%,明顯比擁有更急迫債務問題的歐元區國家(或最近才解決的)還要好許多,像是西班牙、義大利、葡萄牙或希臘。


In fact, for some shorter term borrowing the French Treasury has to raise the money at a rate of below zero, which means that financial market investors have to pay the state to take their money.
事實上,以短期借款來說,法國財政部必須提高大於零的稅率金額,也代表金融市場投資者必須要付國家錢,以取得他們的資金。


But the French government's debt burden is fairly high, close to 100% of annual economic activity or GDP. That's a marked increase since the turn of the century when it was less than 60%.
但法國政府的債務負擔相當高,將近是100%的年經濟活動或GDP,這是自從19世紀末20世紀初當時低於60%明顯的增加幅度。


The IMF says that fiscal dynamics could easily derail, if for example economic growth is a lot weaker than expected. What it means by that is that the debt burden could rise quite rapidly if weak economic growth undermines tax revenue.
IMF表示財政動態平衡很可能脫軌,舉例來說如果經濟成長比預期的還要弱很多,這代表如果經濟成長弱則會損害稅收,債務負擔可能快速攀升。
  • derail 出軌、脫軌
  • undermine逐漸損害、侵蝕…的基礎


Currency competitiveness貨幣競爭力



Another feature of the French government finances is that the public sector is one of the largest.
另一個法國政府財務的重點就是公共支出部分佔最大一部分之一。


Public spending last year was 56.5% of GDP, the highest of any of the developed economies. The benefits include high levels of public services, but does also mean French people and businesses pay a lot of tax.
去年的公共支出為56.5%的GDP,是任何已開發經濟體之中最高的,好處包括高等公共服務,但也代表法國人民與企業要付出很多稅金。

One of the defining features of French economic life this century has been the use of the euro as the country's currency.
法國經濟生活其中一個明確的特徵就是使用歐元作為國家的貨幣。

France has not been at the eye of the financial storms that raged in the early part of this decade, though the debt level and rather sluggish economic growth did make some commentators wonder whether that might have changed.
法國並不在這十年間早期的財政暴風眼,雖然過去負債等級和頗緩慢的經濟成長造成一些評論家的懷疑這是否能改變。


But you could argue that the lack of a separate national currency has deprived France of a means of restoring competitiveness if it does decline. Simply allowing the currency to fall can sometimes achieve that.
但你可以說因為沒有獨立的國家貨幣剝奪了法國恢復競爭力的其中一種方法,如果貨幣值下降的話,有時候僅讓貨幣貶值就可以達成那樣的效果。

France does indeed have a problem with competitiveness, as shown by its export performance and measures of what are called unit labour costs (which factor in both productivity and the cost of employing workers).
法國的確有競爭力的問題,如同他們的出口表現和單位人力成本的衡量(影響生產力及僱用人力成本)。

So perhaps France might have been more competitive with its own currency. That said, France is certainly not the eurozone country where that kind of concern carries the most weight. And some of the presidential candidates have ideas about further domestic reforms to address that issue.
所以如果法國有自己的貨幣,或許他們會變得更具競爭性,而法國也絕對不是那種會對歐元區造成最重大影響的國家,而一些總統候選人針對這些議題提出進一步的國內改革。
  • carry weight (with someone or something)對(某人或某物)很有影響力




原文請看:https://goo.gl/JLIWUi


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